When former Vice President Joe Biden first announced his candidacy for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, he rocketed to the top of the polls and has since been touted as the front-runner and even presumptive nominee — until now.
A new poll shows a collapse in support for Biden, while Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders earned significant gains. This puts the three candidates in a virtual three-way tie, and an MSNBC analyst believes it could be a truly ominous sign for the former VP.
Problematic polling for Biden
Monmouth University‘s new poll has been the focal point of political punditry since its release because it revealed a startling 13-point drop in support for Biden among Democratic voters since the previous survey conducted in June, marking a reduction from 32% to 19% support.
Meanwhile, Warren received a 5-point boost in support from 15% to 20%, and Sanders enjoyed a 6-point bounce from 14% to 20%.
According to MSNBC analyst Steve Kornacki, those polling results don’t bode well for Biden’s campaign, The Washington Free Beacon reported. In fact, Kornacki suggested that the floor was “pretty much falling out” from under Biden’s feet.
Losing ideological ground
Kornacki admitted the poll could be an outlier and that it would take some time to see if other pollsters started to see similar results to Monmouth’s, but he nonetheless dug into the rather troublesome details in terms of Biden’s increasingly precarious chances of securing the Democratic nomination.
“Among liberal voters, Warren — not surprisingly — in first, Sanders right behind her in second,” Kornacki said, pointing to a screen that showed Warren with 24%, Sanders with 21%, and Biden with 15% support among self-described liberal Democratic voters.
“When you look at moderate and conservative voters, this has been sort of a strong base of support ideologically for Biden, he still leads but he’s running, in this poll at least, at 22% among self-described moderates and conservatives,” he continued. The breakdown also showed Sanders pulling 20% support and Warren receiving 16% support among moderate and conservative Democrats.
Young voters flee
“And then there is this — we’ve been talking all year about an age divide on the Democratic side, over 50-years-old, under 50-years-old, well check this out,” Kornacki said. “In the Monmouth poll, Democrats over 50, this is what we’re used to seeing, Biden’s in first place, double-digit advantage, solid lead for Biden with 33% support” over Warren in second with 19% and Sanders in third with 11%.
“Now look at this, under 50-years-old, in this poll on the Democratic side. Not only is Joe Biden not in first place, he is all the way back at 6%, he is tied with Andrew Yang in this poll of Democrats under 50-years-old at just 6%,” he said. That breakdown showed Sanders in first with 27%, Warren in second with 19%, California Sen. Kamala Harris in third with 12%, and Biden in a distant tie for fourth with entrepreneur Yang at 6% support among younger voters.
“So for Biden, look, ideologically not getting what he normally gets from moderates, from conservatives in this poll, and age-wise we’re used to seeing him not do too well among folks under 50, but the floor pretty much falling out for him, at least, again, in this poll,” Kornacki concluded.
For now, Biden still retains his status as the front-runner based on the fact that all of the other major polls show him with a fairly solid lead, but if this Monmouth poll is any indication of a growing shift away from Biden among multiple segments of the electorate, he should be worried.